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Den tyske diskussion om børnepasning i foråret og sommeren 2007 set i lyset af den katolske sociallære, den protestantisk socialetik og DDRs familiepolitik og opdragelsesideologiDamsbo, Dorte (, 2008)[More information][Less information]
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Gram, Anne Kirstine; Fischer Nielsen, Carina (Frederiksberg, 2013)[More information][Less information]
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/4002 Files in this item: 1
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Laursen, Lasse Peter (Frederiksberg, 2009)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: This master thesis concerns the Danish Social Liberal Party Radikale Venstre. In 2005 at the national election, this 104-year-old party had an enormous success. Since then the party has solidly lost support and now receives very bad quotes in the opinion polls. Why is that? This master thesis points towards the fact that the very conditions for succeeding in Danish politics changed significantly back in 2001, when the election of a new Danish government imposed serious consequences on Radikale Venstre. Armed with French discourse analysis and German systems theory, this master thesis runs thoroughly through 3,600 pages of debate books, articles, contemporary diagnoses and four of the most prominent political commentators are being interviewed. The present master thesis finds that the current conditions for achieving success depend on the following factors: A political party must have a contract policy, it needs a great individual case that frames the politics of the party, it must be strong in value-based policy such as judicial, immigration and refugee policy, and, finally, Danish politics need personification through a front figure who symbolizes the party’s politics and identifies with it. The political projects in Denmark that have been successful throughout the last ten years fulfil all the criteria listed above. After an identification and clarification of the conditions to succeed in Danish politics, the thesis studies how Radikale Venstre is relating to these new conditions. It examines the party’s view and finds that Radikale Venstre is discordant as far as the party members view on these new conditions are concerned – should the party obey the new conditions, or should it reject them as being bad and incorrect? The interviews with the party’s parliamentarian representatives reveal that this is the point that they among themselves are in complete disagreement about. It is this very disagreement in Radikale Venstre that shows to have become a general and common element in the party. The room for disagreement is an important factor in the party as it is the only political party in Denmark who has no agreement to expel members that can possibly harm the party. The party’s culture is one of particular freedom. Radikale Venstre has, as the only party, a homepage for debate, where internal affairs within the party are being discussed openly online. The party’s political leader does not even take offence at the most critical voices and attacks on the party line, uttered by radical members of the parliament, but leaves room for everybody to express themselves. This openness and freedom among the members of the Radikale Venstre, has created a problem for the party. There is a disagreement about the requirements for success as well as what it actually is that Radikale Venstre should be. This problem has caused confusion among the voters. The conditions in modern politics have changed and are today all about contract policy, great individual cases, value-based policy and personification. The voters want to know, what they can be guaranteed and in order to be in the elector’s awareness a political party must be identified with an individual case, have a clear and solid value-based policy and a charismatic and distinct person in front. Radikale Venstre is lacking all these factors at the moment. The instrument that holds a political party together and constitutes its identity is power. In the present situation the power is drifting around in Radikale Venstre. Due to the fact of internal disagreement, the party’s ability to determine its direction has proven hard even though direction as such is the crucial element for the success of a political party. Without a direction, the electors do not know what kind of political product they get by voting for Radikale Venstre. Altogether, this master thesis has come up with a contemporary diagnosis of the conditions to succeed in modern Danish politics and exemplifies why Radikale Venstre have had so little success in recent years. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/782 Files in this item: 1
lasse_peter_laursen.pdf (2.360Mb) -
Masterafhandling om forvaltningsmæssige principper og interesseorganisationer i forandringSchmidt, Lisa (Frederiksberg, 2011)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The interaction between the government and the professional organizations and interest groups has been evolving during the last decades. In Denmark, known to be one of the Scandinavian corporate states, the political field of education policy has one of the shortest traditions for cooperation between the state and the organizations in the civil society. Nevertheless, since the 1960‟s there has been periods with very intense cooperation, and other times, when the organizations was kept out in the dark. The last decade has been tumbling especially for the organizations that represents the special interests in primary and secondary schools, primarily organizations representing parents and teachers, and the two organizations has represented very different approaches to the challenges they have met. The Danish government has introduced new principles for governing. In the 1980‟s they left the principles of Public Administration, and turned to implement the principles of New Public Management instead. New Public Management is known to introduce NPM, compared to other public management theories, is more oriented towards outcomes and efficiency through better management of public budget. It is considered to be achieved by applying competition, as it is known in the private sector, to organizations in the public sector, emphasizing economic and leadership principles. New public management addresses beneficiaries of public services much like customers, and conversely citizens as shareholders. Introducing the principles of New Public Management often creates problems with the public employees, who often loses benefits or whose jobs is outsourced during the implementation. In the paper I introduce some interesting ways of implementating New Public Management-principles in the school system in Ontario, Canada. Here the government has used principles of New Public Governance to implement the New Public Management-strategies. And that has worked out very effective. In the paper I compare the political situation in Ontatio, Canada with the situation in Denmark during the 2000‟s. Canada and Denmark differ when you look at the traditional administrative practices. Denmark is a corporate country, with strong continental European traditions of policy making and administration. Canada is a rather pluralistic, anglo-american country in ways of dealing with policy-making and administration. But besides this I find a lot of similarities in the tense situations of political mismanagement, both countries has seen, and which has involved the professional organizations and special interest groups concerning primary and secondary schools. Through interviews with members of the Teachers Union and the Chairman of , lawmaking-documents and other sources of information I try to draw a picture of What has the changes in political and administrative principles meant for the power that the professional organizations and interest groups has in society? Which new principles can be introduces to take back power to the professional organizations and interest groups? Can the danish primary and secondary school system learn from the Canadian Reform from 2003? URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/2906 Files in this item: 1
Lisa_schmidt.pdf (1.575Mb) -
Lazareva, Anastasia (Frederiksberg, 2012)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: This thesis will concern itself with framework agreements with multiple products, and the specific problems which arise when dealing with this particular type of agreement. The public authorities procure a string of products on a daily basis, and these purchases are governed by the stipulations of the EUF Treaty, concerning the free movements of goods and the prohibition against discrimination based on nationality, as well as the Procurement Directive which regulates procurement procedures. During the past few years the tendency within the procurement sector, has moved towards an increase in coordinated purchases, where several municipalities and regions band together when performing these purchases. Furthermore it must be noted that the large majority of these purchases are carried out via framework agreements. A framework agreement can be useful, in situations where the contracting authorities are unsure of which volume of product is needed and exactly when these should be delivered. Framework agreements usually entail thousands of products and this thesis will amongst other things focus on the fact that the contracting authorities are often unable to provide a precise list of the products needed owing to the large array of different preferences within the group of contractors. The Danish system of appeals have come to realise that the before mentioned type of framework agreements exist, where it is not possible for the contracting authorities to define all the products. They have assessed that these agreements can adhere to the principles of the Procurement Directive, if they are defined via a representative product list upon which the offer can be defined and evaluated. However it is crucial that the contracting authorities make a clear demarcation of the type of products required, otherwise this type of framework agreement will be in contradiction with the principle of transparency. The kind of product definition previously mentioned does however leave room for uncertainty with regards to the subject matter of the contract, and seeing as the procurement concerns common-value elements, the representative product lists increase the risk of the winner’s curse, or an overcompensation of the winner’s curse, both of which have been assessed to be socially inefficient. Furthermore it can be noted that procurement of framework agreements takes place in an oligopolistic market, wherefore methods of evaluation where a smaller section of the products are evaluated will promote the implicit or explicit formation of cartels. This specifically concerns framework agreements with renewed competition, as this will not only reduce the number of tenders, but also enable them to identify each other, which are two important pre-conditions for the formation of cartels. Large framework agreements therefore encounter transparency issues, and thus increase the risks of price augmentations. The contracting authorities must therefore aim to work out the procurement material in such a way that the largest possible amount of products is defined. Thereby the evaluation methods will also encompass the largest possible section of products. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/3296 Files in this item: 1
anastasia_lazareva.pdf (1.073Mb) -
Hvilken adfærd udløser indførelse af takststyring?Erstling Rasmussen, Helle (Frederiksberg, 2012)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The purpose of this task is to investigate the behavior to be promoted by introducing charge control. This case is about the introduction of tariff control on day care in Copenhagen. The municipality's intention to introduce charging management is to promote incentives for, and to enter into a new proposed structure with “Cluster management”41 and preserve capacity (to comply with the statutory child care, with an increasing number of children in the municipality), and partly to make the budget model simple and clear. The study has its concrete base in 2 areas of Copenhagen. It is concluded 4 qualitative interviews, 2 interviews with local “cluster leaders”, and 2 with leaders of private institutions. The study takes its analytical starting point in Principal - Agent theory, it is linked to motivation theory and the theory of organizational architecture. The analysis shows that there are examples of Goal - Incongruens in both types of leaders. Thus it is possible that the Agency - Problems arise. The study shows that the goals the municipality´s want to promote with the new budget model, allegedly created an incentive in the 2 independent private institutions to promote these goals, more than the model allegedly has created an incentive in the 2 municipal leaders. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/3123 Files in this item: 1
helle_erstling_rasmussen.pdf (740.2Kb) -
Er der en business case?Risum Christiansen, Josefine; Elkjær, Christian Anders (Frederiksberg, 2011)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The report seeks to analyze the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) reporting requirement in the Statutory Order No. 17 (BPEN) section 135 for financial institutions. The report will take an economic and legislative perspective, examining how Nordea Bank Denmark A/S (NBD) has to follow BPEN section 135, and if there is a business case. The report will finally discuss Nordea‟s CSR work according to the owners of Nordea. The report is divided into five main chapters. Chapter one defines the methods and theories to be used. Chapter two describes the group Nordea, where NBD is the start point for the report and viewpoint. Chapter three investigates the objective of the CSR reporting in BPEN section 135, and how NBD has to act in order to comply with BPEN section 135. The objectives for BPEN section 135 is, that Denmark will become famous for responsible growth, and that companies will achieve better business opportunities by working with CSR. NBD is found obligated to submit an annual report about CSR, but as a subsidiary their obligation is fulfilled by their parent company, and therefore the CSR report for Nordea is the statutory report for NBD in Denmark. It is found, that the reporting provision in section 135 does not define CSR and provides an open understanding of CSR. BPEN section 135 only states a reporting requirement for CSR, which is defined as hard law, and a company needs to fulfill this requirement by using soft law initiatives. Chapter four investigates, if Nordea‟s CSR work has an influence on ROE in Nordea and by that, if there is a business case for CSR. It is found, that CSR is not measurable and there is no business case, because it is not measurable in ROE. It is found, that there is a business case for other values for CSR, because it can contribute to Nordea‟s brand, reputation, legitimacy and risk minimization. It is found, that in order to achieve the business case in both manner, Nordea could prioritize their CSR work according to which area that contribute with most values according to financial performance, other values and their core business. Since CSR is not measurable in ROE, it is in chapter five discussed, if there is a conflict of interest between the shareholders and the managers in Nordea. It is therefore considered, if CSR in Nordea is in conflict with the interests of the shareholders. It is found, that the interest of the owners can focus on profit maximization and on investing in a responsible company. If CSR was measurable, it would be easier for Nordea to show, how CSR positive contributes to ROE. The report conclude, that the primary interest of the shareholders is profit maximization, and CSR is therefore not in the primary interest of the owners in Nordea. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/2823 Files in this item: 1
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Legène, Jacob Martin (Frederiksberg, 2012)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Performance persistence has long been a subject of interest for academics and investors alike. Is it possible to beat the marked? This article examines if performance persistence is an identifiable phenomenon among inter-national equity mutual funds from January 2000 to December 2011. Data comprise of NAV adjusted returns for a randomly selected sample of mutual funds. 248 individual mutual funds comprise the data sample at the end of 2011. This article acknowledges the complexity involved when studying performance persistence, which is mitigated by combining several performance measurements with selected statistical methods to ensure robust conclusions. The Sharpe ratio, modified Sharpe ratio, Jensens alpha, Fama-French alpha and Carhart alpha are used to evaluate mutual fund performance. Randomly distributed ranking of mutual funds are rejected through Spearman rank rho corre-lation test. Cross-sectional regression of past performance gives an indication of performance persistence, though not categorically significant. Both Spearman rank correlation test and cross sectional regressions are performed on 3 and 6 year horizons. To analyze 1 year performance persistence synthetic portfolios are constructed. The article groups’ mutual funds into 4 synthetic portfolios based on their 1 year lagged Sharpe ratio and momentum. Both grouping techniques clearly show that the top synthetic portfolios generate returns greater than the market portfolio. Times series regressions are performed using CAPM, Fama-French’s 3-factor model and Carhart’s 4-factor model. Although the results are only significant when analyzed via the CAPM universe, the results indicate performance per-sistence. Box-Jenkins analysis shows that autocorrelation are detectable in the excess return of the top synthetic portfolios on lagged 6 and 12 months intervals. The top Sharpe portfolio generates an excess return of nearly 70 % relative to the marked portfolio. The top momentum portfolio generates almost 50 % relative to the marked portfolio. This article indicates that performance persistence is detectable for mutual funds URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/3299 Files in this item: 1
jacob_martin_legene.pdf (1.951Mb) -
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Abstract: The goal for this thesis is to shred some light on the bull market in commodities which ended with the credit crunch in august 2008. And more specifically trying to understand what the driving forces behind the price increases are and what role the future market and speculation on that market have had in the eight years of commodity bull market. The focus is not the entire commodity market, but just three, Wheat, Corn and Cattle. The four main questions for this thesis are: 1: how does the spot price and future price intervene with each other and how to they correlate? 2: What have been driving the commodity prices? 3: has the increased volume in future trading had a negative or positive effect on the market as a whole and the prices? 4: Are there a notable difference in volatility between the spot price and future price for the three chosen commodities and are there a notable difference between these commodities and commodities that are not traded on the future exchange. Through a series of analyses the following was concluded. There is a strong correlation between spot and futures, but in the last seven years, there have been a few periods where the correlation has been weaken. At the same time there have been issues with the convergence on the future market, making it more expensive for the hedgers to insure their products and a turnover ratio shows that the liquidity on the markets have fallen in shorter periods. The conclusion is that with the new comers to the markets, the speculations levels have for a short period weaken the system, but the market was already showing improvement before the credit crunch came. Regaining the volatility there haven’t been any effect of the increased volume, only after the credit crunch did a change occur. So speculation is not damaging the stability. There were no clear proofs of future trading increasing or decreasing volatility, but a sign that volatility kept a more even level than without trading. Furthermore it is shown that the main drivers behind the price increase have been increases in demand, along with a falling US Dollar and increasing oil prices. These three bundled together along with the occurrence of the lowest grain stocks world wide in 2006, have sparked the huge prices increases in late 2006 until 2007-08. the last part of 2007 also saw a sharp rally in buying up commodities due to the financial instability, which in turn might a giving the prices a further push upwards. The final conclusion is that although there is speculation in commodities, they serve a purpose and a good for the markets on the long run, with small upsets in the short run. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/793 Files in this item: 1
kasper_sommer.pdf (4.229Mb) -
Weekly local newspapersBrøndum Andersen, Tina Byriel; Myhre Christensen, Line (, 2008)[More information][Less information]
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/190 Files in this item: 1
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Et kvalitativt studie over skolelæreres reaktioner i mødet med en organisatorisk forandringAchilles, Stine (Frederiksberg, 2015)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: In August 2014 a new reform of the Danish primary school was implemented together with a new law about the teachers’ working hours. These initiatives make the latest organizational processes of change which the school teachers have been subject of. In the present dissertation is examined selected teachers’ experience with and reaction to this organizational process of change based on whether their reactions can be explained by using theories about power, sensemaking or recognition. The dissertation is based on a phenomenological understanding where knowledge of real life must be acquired through the actor’s individual understanding of it, for which reason the collection of facts will be made with qualitative research interviews with a number of teachers, a head teacher and a union representative. In the last part of the dissertation it’s concluded that the teachers’ reactions are characterized by anger, disappointment and despair in the process of change. The teachers are angry and disappointed that they or anybody else have not been involved or heard in the preparation of the two initiatives. The teachers don’t feel that their professional knowledge of the field have been recognized, and they feel the content of the reform as being unrealistic and unsubstantiated, which leads to the teachers not being able to find a meaning in the structure of “The new primary school”. At the same time the teachers are despaired because after the implementation of the new law about the teachers’ working hours they cannot make the number of tasks and the time given to them fit together. For that reason they feel that they cannot live up to their own or others’ expectations, which give them the feeling that their long-standing ideas about what it means to be a good and well prepared teacher is about to crack. Another important conclusion is that the school management’s idea of liberating leadership as strategy of the process - in the time before the implementation of the two initiatives on August 1st 2014 – at the same time gave rise to anger and disappointment with some of the teachers, because they felt that the management in the beginning tried to give false hopes about influence, inasmuch as what the teachers wanted to have influence on had already been decided on government and local political levels. Overall it is concluded that the teachers’ reaction to the process of the changes mainly are based upon the fact that they don’t feel that they have been heard, understood or even involved in the decision about, how their future working life is going to be. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/5348 Files in this item: 1
stine_achilles.pdf (1.885Mb) -
Forecasting GDP with fundamental indexingBjanes, Tom Rune; Dahle, Magnus Vegem (Frederiksberg, 2012)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The lately observed distress in macroeconomic conditions around the world has shown that fiscal and monetary policymakers would benefit from an early and accurate prediction of changes in economic activity. Per today GDP is a commonly used proxy for this. This paper attempts to provide this through stock indices weighted on various fundamental data, rather than the usual market capitalization weighting. The intuition behind this is that an index weighted on fundamental data is more representative of the real economy than an index weighted on market capitalization. In general there are few leading indicators for the Norwegian GDP and our methodology has not been tested for the Norwegian GDP or internationally. In this thesis we start by presenting fundamental indexing as pioneered by the research agency Research Affiliates. Following is the basics of Gross Domestic Product and its shortcomings, as well as an overview of leading indicators in Norway. Next we perform a thorough analysis of the developed fundamental indices (FI), and the different comparable indicators. We found that leading indicators based on fundamental metrics in general perform well compared to the peer indicators chosen in this thesis. Among all the 14 indicators examined, the fundamentally based indices are ranked 2-4 and 6-8 when ranked by both Root Mean Squared Errors and Root Mean Squared Forecasting Errors. The thesis concludes that leading indicators based on the methods presented in this paper are well suited as single leading indicators for Norwegian GDP. However, only three out of six FI based indicators perform better than the indicator based on the market capitalization weighted OBX index. The FI based indicators that performed best includes averages of different fundamental data. We believe that for this methodology to perform better than a regular market capitalization based indicator, the Fundamental Indices must be weighted in such a way that it represents the companies in more than one fundamental metric. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/3334 Files in this item: 1
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Med fokus på det danske detailmarkedAddis, Kristoffer; Sørensen, Mikkel (Frederiksberg, 2009)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The topic of this paper is: The realization of the consumer’s free choice of supplier on the Danish retail market for electricity in accordance with the continuing liberalization of the internal market of electricity. The idea behind this topic is to analyze the current competitive climate on the Danish retail market for electricity in order to identify why the competition is not effective which limits the mobilization of consumers who actual want to make use of the free choice to purchase electricity from another supplier. At this point there is much debate on consumers who remain with their present supplier of electricity, who has a license to distribute electricity to consumers who do not use their right to purchase electricity from a supplier of their own choice. This compared to the fact that only about 2 percent of the consumers yearly have chosen another supplier. Much of this debate centers on the non-transparency on the Danish retail market for electricity, which makes it very difficult for the consumers to realize if they can get a financial saving by changing supplier. Furthermore the local monopolies limit the competition between the suppliers. A huge part of the problem is caused by the supply-system based on the ideas of a “default supplier”. The “default supplier”-system is imposed to maintain the supply service. To improve the competition we have suggested some long run initiatives which will provide greater transparency and remove the local monopolies together with the price regulation. Among other things we suggest to introduce an online chat-service in order to provide better service and an “electricity-package” which the consumers has access to. This “electricity-package” contains information about the possibility to freely choose another supplier, etc. Beyond this we suggest to change the supply-system from a “default-supplier”-system to a “supplier of last resort”-system. The “supplier of last resort”-system will maintain the supply service in a way that is much less intervening. Finally this assignment argues for some proposals for solutions which legislators on the Danish retail market for electricity could use in order to increase the mobilization of consumers who make use of their free choice to substitute suppliers. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/541 Files in this item: 1
kristoffer_addis_og_mikkel_soerensen.pdf (1.143Mb) -
Negarandeh, Razieh (Frederiksberg, 2008)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The Danish fashion industry consists of about 92% one-man companies and only about 2% who have more than five employees. Even though it still has the sixth largest export commodity in Denmark in 2006 and has a turnover of about DKK 23 billion in 2007. This contradiction was one the reasons for this thesis choice of research. There is a focus on how can the small fashion companies best be assisted to overcome the challenges they face to grow and become successful. An overview of the international industry is given in order to give a background understanding and how the strong the competition is. Next and overview of the Danish fashion industry is given first its history and development and next the facts and figures that enables to get a deeper understanding of the fashion industry today. Subsequently the initiatives taken by the government and the fashion industry are discussed. It illustrates that the government is willing to assist the SMEs within fashion and has put forward some initiatives that now needs to be developed further by the fashion industry and its stakeholders. In order to give a practical example on how the SMEs within fashion can be assisted, London College of Fashion has been used as a best example case. It is excellent learning example that should be studied by the stakeholders within Danish fashion industry and the government. Next Management of SMEs was analysed on a theoretical base and practical base. An important part of making a fashion company successful is the marketing and branding aspect. As argued by Saviola et al. “Fashion is all about the intangible values and the intangible values it creates“ thus branding is the ultimate tool to create this. The theories on how to create a strong, favourable, and unique brand were provided. Finally and discussion and recommendation chapter is made that discusses the initiatives that need to be taken in order to best assist the SMEs within Danish fashion. Three actor levels is defined, the government, the fashion industry, and the SMEs in order to specify who should or could be responsible for the formulated recommendations. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/307 Files in this item: 1
razieh_negarandeh.pdf (456.7Kb) -
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Abstract: Real option analysis is a refinement of the discounted cash flow model, which gives important insight into the value creation and timing of future business decisions. The discounted cash flow method is one of the most widely recognized and applied models to value projects and companies, but unfortu-nately it has a number of weaknesses especially with regard to uncertainty and the possibility of later alterations by management. Real option analysis improves the static valuation from the discounted cash flow model by combining it with the financial option pricing models, in a way that takes into account the probabilistic nature of the projects cash flow and management’s flexibility to act upon changes in the business environment. Real options can be valued using multiple financial option pricing models, but since the binomial model is the most flexible of the bunch, it is has become the most applied. Real options appear in uncertain projects, where the uncertainty can somehow be solved over time, and management has the ability to react on any new information concerning the project. The most common simple real options include the option to abandon, expand, contract, wait and of course choose between two or more of the aforementioned. The simple options is however not always advanced enough to replicate the com-plexity of most projects, and thus real option analysis uses compounded options instead. Strategic planning and investment is an explicit recognition, development and management of its portfolio of real options. A big part managing the portfolio correctly is to restrain from exercising the real options prematurely, even though it might be tempting from time to time. There is six different regions real options can be in, and depending on the region it can be determined how best to address them. Real options in region 1 and 6 are the easiest to manage because they have little or no time left to expiration, and therefore they should be exercised “now” and “never” respectively. It is a lot harder to determine what to do in region 2 to 5, since the real options still have time and uncertainty left before management must make a final investment decision. Thus in region 2 and 3 management are to invest “maybe now” and “probably later”, and in region 4 and 5 they will only “maybe later” and “probably never” exercise the real options. One of the big advantages of evaluating real options in relation to the six regions is that it makes it easier to illustrate the effect real options has on each other, and how they react on changes in the business environment. Management should have a holistic ap-proach to handling synergies between projects, in order to create a strategy, which creates an optimal balance between strategic and operational activities, so the company benefits now and generates enough growth options to profit in the future as well. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/4873 Files in this item: 1
ulrik_meibom_svare.pdf (2.069Mb) -
Et værktøj til værdiansættelse i medicinalbranchen?Schjønning, Anne Katrine; Møller Olsen, Philip (Frederiksberg, 2013)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The literature concerning real options is filled with appraisals of how the real option method enables the user to capture the value of flexibility. The use of real options as a managerial tool seems to be in focus, and the literature gives only a little attention to the real options approach as an equity research tool. This master thesis investigates the applicability of real options as an appropriate tool in equity research on pharmaceutical companies, by testing the following two hypotheses. (1) Real options as an add-on to the traditional DCF-model isn’t used by analysts. (2) In practice is it possible to use real options for quantifying flexibility when valuing companies. A literature review of real options in general and its transition from financial options, has been conducted. The review concludes that the lack of market data due to the projects illiquidity makes the quality of the input estimates questionable. Especially the estimation of value of the underlying real asset and its volatility needs careful attention. This combined with the models showing a high sensitivity to changes in these variables makes the results even less reliable. H. Lundbeck A/S is used as case company, as the literature mentions the pharmaceutical industry as an obvious industry for the use real options. The industry is recognized by its high level of R&D spending, patents and uncertainty about the success of each development phase. The analysis finds evidence that the characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry causes the options to move deep-in-the-money and thereby making the real options approach redundant. It is suggested that a similar analysis is also conducted for other industries, where real options might be useful, in order to make a general statement of the applicability of real options as an equity research tool. The final conclusion is that the real option approach can help quantify the value of flexibility, if the approach and the models are fitted correctly with the estimates, the model will be precise. Another conclusion is, that it is possible to conduct a real options analysis with public information as the only source. The downside is, that it is not certain that it will ever be possible to estimate a satisfying input. Hence, the results will be imprecise. On top modelling the real options is also very time consuming and it might very well be, that the time of the analysts is spend better on other tasks. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/4203 Files in this item: 1
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Sahlin Olesen, Mikael (Frederiksberg, 2009)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Are PE firms overlooking potential (real) value by not focusing on real options in relation to their exit option? URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/705 Files in this item: 1
mikael_sahlin_olesen.pdf (851.5Kb) -
Enevoldsen, Anders Rasmus; Nordbæk, Anders Vinderslev (Frederiksberg, 2011)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to introduce the concept of real option valuation with the use of fuzzy numbers through performing different fuzzy real option valuations on a constructed biotech drug development project. The main argument among practitioners for not applying a real option approach is the difficulty of implementation. The fuzzy pay-off method to real option valuation sees to this and makes real option valuation accessible for practitioners with a non-financial background. In the first part of the thesis the underlying assumptions for performing a fuzzy valuation in a biotech setting are reviewed, discussed and concluded on. First the current business environment as well as the valuation practices most commonly applied is examined. The most used DCF method is criticized as it does not incorporate the value of managerial flexibility stemming from the high uncertainty surrounding a biotech project. To include this value, an analysis of the classic real option valuation methods best suited for a biotech setting is then performed, the result of which is that the event tree and the binomial tree are well suited for applying a real option approach to the valuation – dependent on the practitioner’s financial level. Next the concept of fuzzy numbers is introduced. The fuzzy pay-off method to real option valuation is presented and applied to simple DCF valuations in an uncomplicated manner in order to transform it into a real option valuation. Also a fuzzy approach to a binomial tree valuation is analysed and applied. The last part is centered on the actual valuation of the constructed biotech project. The valuation setting is outlined and analysed in order to provide reliable input variables for the valuation. Through strategic analyses and empirical findings the capital budgeting is performed to allow three different valuations aimed at different levels of financial understanding to be performed. First, the fuzzy pay-off method is applied to the traditional DCF valuation. It is shown how the fuzzy approach creates a real option valuation that captures the value of managerial flexibility neglected by the traditional. Second, the fuzzy pay-off method is adopted on the risk adjusted event tree valuation and again demonstrates its ability to value managerial flexibility compared to the original approach. Third, fuzzy numbers are applied to a binomial tree valuation, where the fuzzy version puts more weight on the managerial flexibility stemming from the amplified volatile development in the underlying asset. Compared to the fuzzy DCF valuation the fuzzy risk adjusted valuation is preferred due to its inclusion of a structured risk perspective and ease of implementation for practitioners. For more advanced practitioners the fuzzy binomial approach is preferred due to its superior alignment with the real option thinking. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/2702 Files in this item: 2
Case.xlsx (198.8Kb) -
Jul Christensen, Gitte (Frederiksberg, 2010)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The purpose of this thesis has been to investigate the value of IMVAMUNE, a vaccine under development. To answer this, a sub research question was composed to investigate how real options theory could be applied to do the valuation. A working hypothesis was developed, stating that I expected the value of IMVAMUNE to constitute more than 30% of the total company value. Bavarian Nordic has a contract with the National Institute of Health to develop IMVAMUNE as a safer smallpox vaccine than the current alternatives. The company is due to deliver 20 million doses of the vaccine starting in 2010. During 2010, the company will initiate the phase III IMVAMUNE clinical trials, which are expected to be concluded in 2014. A decision tree was created to identify which real options Bavarian Nordic would face in the future. This shows that Bavarian Nordic has an option to invest and an option to abandon in 2010, as well as an option to invest and an option to abandon in 2014 if the 2010 decision is to invest, otherwise known as a sequential compound option. The 2010 option concerns the decision to invest in phase III studies or abandon IMVAMUNE, whereas the 2014 option concerns the decision to apply for a license with the FDA or abandon the project. The expected future cash flows and the WACC has been estimated and shows that the present value of future cash flows is 2.616 million DKK. Using the present value estimate, the binomial lattice for the IMVAMUNE project was created. Based on this lattice, the option lattice for the 2014 options was calculated. This lattice was then used to valuate the compound option since the value of the 2010 options are dependant on the value of the 2014 options. A sensitivity analysis showed that the project value was most sensitive to changes in the WACC, the exchange rate and the market size. The total value of the project was estimated at 786 million DKK or 50% of the market value of the company, which, at the valuation date, was 1.583 million DKK, thereby validating the hypothesis that IMVAMUNE constitutes the main part of the value of Bavarian Nordic. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/1572 Files in this item: 1
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