Strategic analysis and valuation of Falck A/S

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Strategic analysis and valuation of Falck A/S

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dc.contributor.author Skaarup, Thomas
dc.date.accessioned 2012-02-17
dc.date.accessioned 2012-02-17T10:45:16Z
dc.date.available 2012-02-17T10:45:16Z
dc.date.issued 2012-02-17
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10417/2917
dc.description.abstract In the past year and a half there has been much speculation as to whether Falck would be the next large company to be listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. When Nordic Capital announced its decision to sell all of its shares it was on the cards, but because of the financial insecurity in the market, Falck and Nordic Capital decided to look for an alternative investor. In December 2010 The Lundbeck Foundation emerged and purchased 36% of Falck`s shares at a price, valuing Falck at 7.888 bn. with the new ownership Falck re-launched its international globalization strategy. The initial purpose of this thesis was to estimate the value of Falck prior to an IPO, but with this subject no longer relevant, I found it interesting to compare a theoretical based value with the value of 7.888 bn. estimated by the Lundbeck Foundation`s purchase of Falck. The main objective of this master’s thesis has therefore been to determine a fair value of Falck A/S share as of 1. Dec 2011. The valuation method is based on the Discounted Cash Flow model, thus raising a number of interesting issues such as estimating WACC components from a group of comparable companies – the peer group. The first part of the thesis is a strategic analysis of Falck, where the strong business model of Falck and a lack of real competitors paint a picture of a very healthy company. The following financial analysis ends up with the same conclusion, with Falck improving the profit margin year on year while creating growth from retained earnings rather than debt. In the budgeting part of the thesis a forecast period of 10 years is chosen reasoning additional time is needed to fully exhaust the new markets entered during the large ongoing expansion. The weighted cost of capital is then determined at 7.47%, with the Beta value being estimated from a peer group - the estimation of beta is associated with a relatively high error margin, mainly because no companies resemble Falck 100% and therefore are exposed to the exact same risks. By carefully selecting a peer group, however the error margin can be greatly reduced. Finally the value of Falck is estimated at DKK 15.501 million as of 1st December 2011, before the sensitivity analysis points out the flaws of the DCF-model. en_US
dc.format.extent 92 s. en_US
dc.language eng en_US
dc.subject.other Kandidatafhandlinger en_US
dc.title Strategic analysis and valuation of Falck A/S en_US
dc.type mop en_US
dc.accessionstatus modt12feb17 jobrmo en_US
dc.contributor.corporation Copenhagen Business School. CBS en_US
dc.contributor.corporationshort Department of Finance. FI en_US
dc.contributor.corporationshort Institut for Finansiering. FI en_US
dc.contributor.department MSc in Economics & Business Administration en_US
dc.contributor.departmentshort 22 en_US
dc.description.notes Cand.merc.aef. Applied Economics and Finance en_US
dc.idnumber x656692749 en_US
dc.publisher.year 2011 en_US
dc.publisher.city Frederiksberg en_US

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Activities 2011.xlsx 13.88Kb Microsoft Excel 2007 View/Open
Exchange and Interest rates.xlsx 28.43Kb Microsoft Excel 2007 View/Open
GDP growth rates 1970-2010.xls 35.5Kb Microsoft Excel View/Open
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