Browsing Cand.merc.IB - MSc in International Business by Title
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Behavioural Finance and an Empirical Investigation of the Patriotic Bias in the U.S. Equity MarketPødenphanth, Inger Kirstine Dalgaard (Frederiksberg, 2013)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Identifying patriotism in the financial market can, to some extent, be difficult, because the concept is based on feelings rather than rationality. However, several scholars have already proofed the existence of patriotic bias in the equity market, which is not consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. Patriotic bias occurs because agents feel patriotic and want to support their home country. One of the possible ways, to support their country, is by investing in companies with patriotic names in them, thus referring to the agent’s home country. This kind of investor behaviour, of preferring patriotic equities, all else equal, is not rational and therefore challenges the traditional economic theories that are developed on investor rationality and perfect markets. In this study the patriotic bias is investigated in the US equity market around patriotic holidays. A surge of patriotism around those days in the US, together with previous findings by other scholars, contributes to the foundation of this thesis. In order to investigate whether there exists a patriotic bias or not around the patriotic holidays, two patriotic portfolios are constructed, one equally weighted and one value weighted. The portfolios consist of 97 American equities with the company names including either of the four names America(n), or US(A). Thirteen American patriotic holidays have been identified and a dummy variable has been constructed to capture these. Several regression analyses with the equally weighted and the value weighted portfolios, as the dependent variables have been performed to see if there is any significance in the variable of the patriotic holidays. The results did, however, not show any significance of increased returns in the patriotic portfolios around patriotic days. In fact, each estimated coefficient on the patriotic holidays dummy was slightly negative for both the equally weighted portfolio, and the value weighted portfolio in all the regressions, after controlling for economic market news, and other calendar anomalies such as pre-holiday effect, week day effect and month effect. These results indicate a return in the patriotic portfolios of approximately 0.026%-0.05% less, around patriotic holidays compared to any other “regular” days. The results proofed to be valid, as same evidence of negative estimated coefficients of the patriotic holidays dummy were found when making robustness checks of increased time periods. Thus, no patriotic bias was detected around the patriotic holidays. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/4698 Files in this item: 1
inger_kirstine_dalgaard_poedenphanth.pdf (1.268Mb) -
Marstrand Kristensen, Inge (Frederiksberg, 2013)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The aim of this study was to investigate Public-Private Innovation (PPI) and provide insights on what factors to prioritise in addressing the problem of attracting private medico companies to engage in a two-stage model proposed by the Danish Regions. The study therefore tested a structural equation model (SEM) of factors influencing Private Medico Companies’ Propensity of Engaging in Pre-commercial PPIs with the Danish Regions. The proposed SEM draws upon a framework developed by Sambasivan et al. (2013), which measures the success of inter-firm strategic alliances. Based on a number of interviews the inter-firm framework was modified by changing the construct measuring success to a construct measuring the propensity of engagement. The interviews also led to the introduction of an additional construct, Manager Motivation. The result of the modifications was a model that better captures the aspects of PPI. Self-administered questionnaires were used to collect data from 31 Danish medico companies and the model was estimated via Partial Least Squares. Testing the SEM returned seven statistically significant factors influencing the propensity to engage; Environment, Strategic Alliance Motive, Asset Specificity, Perception of Opportunistic Behaviour, Interdependence, Relational Capital and Manager Motivation. These factors are able to explain 78.2% of the variance in the Propensity of Private Medico Companies Engaging in Pre-commercial PPIs with the Danish Regions. Perception of Opportunistic Behaviour, Manager Motivation and Relational Capital directly influence the propensity to engage. With a path coefficient of 0.438, Manager Motivation has the strongest direct influence on the propensity to engage. Additionally, Interdependence, Asset Specificity, Strategic Alliance Motive and Environment indirectly influence the propensity to engage through Relational Capital. Changing the perspective from inter-firm to Public-Private caused a proposed mediation effect of Relational Capital to be insignificant for the effect of Asset Specificity and Perception of Opportunistic Behaviour on the propensity to engage. Furthermore, the effect of Asset Specificity on Interdependence turned out to be insignificant. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/4767 Files in this item: 1
inge_marstrand_kristensen.pdf (2.298Mb) -
Veidung, Haakon Jard (Frederiksberg, 2015)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The thesis attempts to figure out if a simple yield curve can be used to predict the stock market. The yield curve is made up of two variables; the 10-year treasury bond and the 3- month treasury bill. Due to the fact that the Norwegian 3-month treasury bill was only established in 2003 the regression analysis was split into two. A short- and a long-term. The annualized quarterly return on seasonally adjusted, chained GDP was used as the dependent variable and the spread was the independent variable in the regression analysis. The results of the regression analysis, plotting GDP against the spread, indicated that the yield curve could be predicting seven quarters ahead for the long- and ten quarters for the short-term in Norway. In the US the yield curve seemed to predict ten quarters in the long- and sixteen in the short-term. These assumptions were based on the strength of the models. The S&P 500 and OSEBX indexes were used as proxies, representing their respective countries stock markets. The correlation test and the regression analysis was performed to see if the stock market is able to predict future changes in GDP. The stock market seems to be leading GDP by three quarters in Norway and one quarter in the US. The tests were only performed using the longterm scope. In order to test the overall research question, a comparison test was designed. The cumulative return on a risky, risk-free and Alternative portfolio were compared. The predictive horizon of the yield curve and stock market was decided on the basis of the results of the regression analysis. At least one Alternative portfolio outperformed the stock market proxy in all tests. It was, however, outperformed by the risk-free portfolio in the long-term Norway comparison. The only Alternative strategy portfolios that outperformed the stock market in both the short- and long-term were k3 and k9 in Norway and the US respectively. The null hypothesis was rejected and the yield curve is able to predict the stock market to a certain extent. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/5637 Files in this item: 1
haakon_jard_veidung.pdf (985.0Kb) -
How does the oil price affect the Norwegian Krone?Kopstad Vanvik, Martine; Sjøgren Iversen, Søren (Frederiksberg, 2015)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Inspired by the striking fall in the Norwegian krone, which has coincided with the oil price’s tumble since June of last year, this thesis will investigate the impact of oil on the Norwegian currency. The aim of the paper is to give an understanding of how dependent the Norwegian economy and currency are on the country’s petroleum sector. Relevant subjects like the possibility of Dutch disease and the role of the country’s sovereign wealth fund in the Norwegian economy will also be looked into. However, the main research question of the thesis is: “How does the oil price affect the Norwegian krone?” The thesis presents relevant history of the Norwegian economy from the time of oil discovery in 1969 to the present date in order to reveal the country’s financial state as well as its dependence on oil. It is found that the oil sector is the country’s largest and most important industry, constituting over half of Norway’s exports, which makes the country largely dependent on the price of oil, and thus the forces shaping the oil market. Furthermore, the government and central bank’s measures to improve the economy and the country’s terms of trade are described. This part also involves the functions of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund in the economy. With the purpose of understanding which forces shape the price of oil, the world’s largest producers, exporters and importers of oil are listed. Graphical evidence is provided to show the co-movements between the Norwegian currency and the price of Brent crude oil. Although the sovereign wealth fund was established to diminish this dependence, events in the economic history of Norway are often found to coincide with fluctuations in the oil price, as the development in the real exchange rate of the krone closely co-moves with the price of oil through the 16-year observation period. This also seemed true for other currencies of oil exporting countries. Currencies of net oil importing countries presented ambiguous results. By thoroughly investigating the development of a number of exchange rates through graphical evidence and OLS-regression models, the thesis finds that oil price has had a larger impact on several currencies including the Norwegian krone after the financial crisis in 2008/2009. For oil exporting countries’ currencies, the oil price increasing has mostly led to an appreciation against foreign currencies. Through use of theory and extensive historical research the thesis concludes that the Norwegian terms of trade will improve when the price of oil is low. However, as the country and the krone are quite dependent on oil, a lower oil price can have severe consequences for the Norwegian economy if the price of oil stays low over a longer period of time than we have seen so far. Nevertheless, the Government Pension Fund - Global should be capable of securing the Norwegian economy against a crash due to a prolonged situation of a low oil price, and is considered to be the main reason for the lack of evidence of Dutch disease in Norwegian economy to date. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/6259 Files in this item: 1
Søren_IversenMartine_Vanvik.pdf (9.854Mb) -
Erbo Mortensen, Kasper; Andersen, Kasper (Frederiksberg, 2010)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Outline of the subject: The objective with the thesis at hand is to provide mobile operators with a business model proposal for mobile internet in emerging markets. To achieve this goal we have carried out an end user analysis on the consumer needs and demands in emerging markets. Here we have mapped out the requirements that end users have to mobile internet. Next, we have conducted a marketing analysis to identify the marketing aspects of mobile internet for mobile operators. The findings from our end user analysis and marketing analysis have been combined into our business model discussion. Herein, we have discussed what a mobile internet business model can include. Based on this discussion, we have proposed a business model. The business model proposal that close this paper is put forward with the aim to support mobile operators in emerging markets reaching the middle class consumers with access to affordable mobile internet. Theories and concepts applied: To conduct the end user analysis and the marketing analysis, we have used consumer behavior theory, theory on disruptive technologies, pricing theory, competition theory, and transaction cost theory. The theories have been applied in this thesis in order to provide a set of basic premises‟ that functions as the academic base in our analysis. For the business model proposal we have made use of the concept of “The 9 Building Blocks”. This concept has also guided us in structuring the discussion leading up to the proposal. Main findings: Our analysis shows that we basically see two different user segments in emerging markets. First, we have discovered that the lower middle class consumers earn 2-12 USD/day, most often living in rural areas. This segment makes up around 87% of the emerging market middle class. Second, we have found that the medium-to-upper middle class consumers earn 12-50 USD/day, often living in urban areas. This segment comprises around 13% of the middle class. In the discussion, we have calculated that total ICT services must not be priced higher than 10.83 USD/month on average for the lower middle class and 46.85 USD/month for the higher middle class. The first segment can only afford a basic handset with browser access, while the other middle class segment has higher income power and an IT literacy level necessary to smartphones. In the business model proposal, we suggest IT learning activities for the lower segment to beat the IT literacy lack. We also suggest services to be tailored to local contexts. The higher segment speaks English and will as such demand international services like Facebook. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/1966 Files in this item: 1
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Dinons, Tigran (Frederiksberg, 2011)[More information][Less information]
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A Grounded Theory approachAleknavičiūtė, Eglė (Frederiksberg, 2011)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The topic of the thesis is an economic value of hydrologic (numerical water simulation) software. Dutch research institute and specialized consultancy Deltares is facing a challenge – shifting business models, from the conventional license fees and support income to the open source environment. Open source software implies no more lump sum purchase revenues for the institute, while complex scientific software requires extensive investments to keep up the state of the art technology development. To adjust the business models, but also to justify the rationale for the governmental subsidies, the proof of the economic value created by the use of hydrologic software raises a question. After investigating the existing economic literature, however, it proved obvious that no economic valuation framework exists for quantifying the economic value created by the use of scientific software. The research is hence focused on two goals. Firstly, on the development of the valuation framework, and secondly, on the quantification and assessment of business/economic value of Deltares hydrologic software packages. The method employed in the research was chosen according to the circumstances. Qualitative exploratory research, and more specifically – Grounded Theory approach is suggested to be used in the fields that have not been studied extensively before. It entailed interviewing, transcribing, coding and comparing the interview material to conclude with the emerging framework. The sample included seven Dutch engineering consulting bureaus, two of them – smaller but highly specialized companies, and the rest – large international companies, falling into top 10 engineering bureaus in the Netherlands. As suggested by Grounded Theory, additional interviews were sought as more questions were arising. Proposed method of valuation is based on layering economic value in different levels – project level, organizational level and unanticipated value. As a case valuation, an attempt to quantify the value of Delft3D and SOBEK software packages is illustrated. The closest estimate for the project level value is based on the number of modelers working with the hydrologic software within the companies, and the multiplier of the direct value is offered as a possible spread of direct value on the organizational level. Unanticipated value is impossible to estimate at this state of research. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/3060 Files in this item: 1
egle_aleknaviciute.pdf (1.044Mb) -
MNCs business strategies in developing countriesAckermann, Camilla (Frederiksberg, 2010)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: This thesis explores the concept of poverty, the promise of the poverty reducing effects of FDI, and MNCs business strategies in developing countries. The world’s population is rapidly increasing and the rich people are getting richer, whereas the poor people are becoming even more marginalized. During the years of liberalization the belief was that this led to economic growth, and hence was good for development. FDIs have boomed the last decades, and this flow of capital has been the main proxy for MNC activity; consequently the question has been centered on FDI is bad or good for the poor. However, research shows that neither liberalization nor FDI necessarily is good for development, and that FDI mainly makes a difference if it involves relevant types of linkages. MNCs are mainly motivated by opportunities that increase their profits, and the most important factors for MNCs are still market size and access to resources (Dunning 2002). Nevertheless, as markets are getting saturated and MNCs are looking for new opportunities, innovative business strategies have been developed. This thesis explores the following three business strategies in the developing world; the Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP), the Base of the Pyramid (BOP) and Social Business. The two BOP approaches argue that MNCs can seek profit opportunities in developing countries. The phrase “Doing good and doing well” are often used, indicating that MNCs can embark on poor markets while at the same time reduce poverty. The Bottom of the Pyramid approach claims that the poor market is an untapped market opportunity for MNCs, and that by establishing in this market MNCs can make a profit by offering their products/services while at the same time improve the life of the poor. On the other hand, the Base of the Pyramid approach argues that the poor need to be utilized as producers and that by developing local capabilities MNCs can spur development. The third approach, Social Business, also emphasizes developing local capabilities, and further states that MNCs have to look at problems in the developing markets as opportunities. However, this approach sees business strategy as a method to solve a social problem, and the idea of making profit is removed from this strategy. All three strategies are critically explored in the thesis, and cases are reviewed to evaluate the outcomes from until now implemented projects. The thesis concludes that more research is necessary to determine the overall impact from the MNCs presence in poor markets, but the available evidence suggests that a number of MNCs have been able to create strategies that can encourage development for the poor, mainly by developing local capabilities, innovative products/services and flexible solutions. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/1509 Files in this item: 1
camilla_ackermann.pdf (543.2Kb) -
Empirical analysis on the ceramic tile industryLanzi, Milo (Frederiksberg, 2011)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Over the past ten years Italian firms belonging to the ceramic tile cluster in Sassuolo have experienced a sound decrease in sales and worldwide export shares. This paper examines whether embeddednesss influence firms’ economic performance, R&D intensity and firms’ propensity to internationalize, as well as the relation between local linkages and firms’ age. Findings show that location in a cluster is positively related to economic growth. Contrary to the previous literature local embeddedness does not increase with firms’ age. The level of local integration seems to have a clear influence on the incidence of firms` R&D intensity. The research has also shown that districts’ firms have stronger network ties among each other than do firms located outside the district. The same applies for firms under the same ownership; however the single firm maintains strong linkages primarily with local clients and local suppliers. More, embeddedness does not limit firms’ internationalization. Findings show that firms pursued five similar strategies in order to counteract low-cost competition from emerging countries such as China. Finally, the results have shown that entrepreneurship and the formation of new firms play a critical role in the development and upgrade of the industrial district, as they are a main source of innovation and entrepreneurial spirit. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/3058 Files in this item: 1
milo_lanzi.pdf (1.301Mb) -
An analysis of the Artic environment’s influence on LNG supply chains and strategic choices companies can adopt to mitigate riskVolle, Jan Erik; Haugen, Vegard (Frederiksberg, 2016)[More information][Less information]
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/5992 Files in this item: 1
jan_erik_volle_og_vegard_haugen.pdf (9.544Mb) -
The Case of Ooredoo in MyanmarIngwar Jakobsen, Anne; Olsgaard, Lea (Frederiksberg, 2014)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: This paper examines the private sector’s role in instigating socio-economic development in least developed countries, explored through the perspective of a multinational corporation (MNC) providing a necessity good. In order to empirically investigate this, we employ an exemplary case of Ooredoo, a Qatari telecommunications company, recently granted a license to rollout a modern information and telecommunications infrastructure (ICT) in Myanmar. Accordingly, the paper illuminates how and to what extent Ooredoo has an impact on Myanmar’s socio-economic development. A comprehensive theoretical framework provides the foundation for a dynamic 360-degree perspective on Ooredoo’s potential socio-economic impact. Developmental impact is examined through a business perspective, taking a bottom of the pyramid approach. In order to adequately contextualize and identify impact areas, a framework addressing a country’s political, institutional and economic systems is employed. To illuminate how MNCs can impact these three systems, a combination of theories is utilized. The theoretical framework is operationalized through an exploratory qualitative case study design. The findings reveal that Ooredoo potentially impacts Myanmar through the following main activities: developing wide-reaching ICT infrastructure; filling institutional voids by providing leap-frog digitalized solutions; setting best-practices; engaging with and progressing institutional frameworks; training of locals and additional social engagements; distribution channel upgrading; capability building including demonstration effects; breaking monopoly and exerting competitive pressures. These activities constitute how Ooredoo potentially impacts development on five overall areas: Infrastructure, Corruption, Formalizing the Informal, Upgrading & Capability Building, and Competition. By impacting these five areas, Ooredoo potentially has a profound impact on Myanmar’s political, institutional and economic systems, resulting in an extensive overall socio-economic development impact. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/4973 Files in this item: 1
anne_ingwar_jakobsen_og_lea_olsgaard.pdf (4.139Mb) -
An Event Study of American and German CorporationsGrøstad, Thomas; Berg Johansen, Nicolai (Frederiksberg, 2015)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: This thesis examines the short-term investor reactions to Chief Executive Officer (CEO) successions in the United States and Germany. The authors constructed a brand new data set, which contains 162 CEO successions of the largest companies listed on Frankfurt Stock Exchange (FWB) in Germany and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in the United States. The successions were gathered over a 15-year time period, between 2000 and 2015. The reactions in the financial markets where captured through the application of MacKinlay’s (1997) event study methodology, and statistically tested for any cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) through 35 constructed hypotheses. In every CEO succession event, the authors collected a number of key independent variables, which in turn became the components of most of the created hypotheses. The independent variables comprised of gender, age, origin of the successor, tenure of the predecessor, company size and financial performance before the announcement. Furthermore, the most intriguing results were deeper analyzed in the reflection of the diverse corporate governance systems in the respective countries, as well as previous literature on CEO turnovers. The authors argued that substituting the CEO is the most influential mechanism the board of directors may apply in the pursuit of value creation. Thus, some kind of reaction in the financial market could be expected. The overall CAAR analysis indicated a positive market reaction to CEO turnovers, yet only statistically significant at a 90 % confidence level. The authors also argued that the differences between corporate governance systems in the United States and Germany, could affect the expectations to the newly appointed CEO. The aggregated CAAR analysis of each market suggested minimal differences in investor reactions to a CEO succession. Furthermore, the authors identified four other interesting findings. First, investors react very positively to externally hired CEOs in both US and Germany. Second, investors react positively to CEO turnovers amongst American and German firms that suffered from Poor financial performance. Third, investors have strong confidence in young CEOs in German companies. Last, there are indications of differences in the reception of male and female CEOs in the US. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/5855 Files in this item: 1
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A case study of three companies within the oil and gas industry on how to implement social media in the crisis communication responseHeradstveit, Maren Løwén; Hagen, Kine (Frederiksberg, 2011)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: In this study the emphasis has been on the increasing importance of social media to businesses, and how it can be utilized as a communication tool in crisis response management. The argumentation has been that social media has brought down old media barriers by making the stakeholders more informed and empowered, which has further contributed to shifting the control of company’s public reputation from the corporation itself to the control of social media forums. Unlike traditional mainstream media, social media is a democracy, and companies who attempt to control the information flow will fail, by appearing dishonest and secretive. The total effects of social media on businesses are still unknown. This study thus highlights the degree of uncertainty concerning challenges and possibilities associated with communication amid stakeholders through these channels, and the lack of sufficient research within crisis management on this particular field. The aim of the study was therefore to examine how social media can be used as a means to help restore the company’s reputation and public image post-crisis. When conducting a case analysis by assessing and comparing the crisis response efforts of three American oil and gas companies, we were able to identify differences in successful managing of social media communication. The lessons taken from the three companies’ communication efforts through social media were the basis of the final proposition and recommendations on how social media can be implemented into the crisis response plan. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/2696 Files in this item: 1
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An examination of the impact of a number of influencial variables on SR-investors socially responsible investment behaviorFærgemann, Maria H.; Ingvertsen, Karen (Frederiksberg, 2010)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Why did the clients in Oikos select an ethically profiled bank? URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/1954 Files in this item: 1
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A young industry at crossroadsJeznita, Stephan (Frederiksberg, 2009)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Germany is one of the world’s major producers of photovoltaic products that convert sunlight radiation into electric energy. Within the photovoltaic value system, this thesis focuses on silicon solar cell and thin-film module manufacturers in Germany (termed the ‘solar cell industry’). The research is based on four pillars: (i) to assess how competitive the German solar cell industry is in an international comparison, (ii) to evaluate what types of locationspecific strengths and weaknesses Germany offers to the industry, (iii) to assess where these advantages reside, i.e. on the national or the regional level – the latter is founded in the agglomeration of firms in former East Germany, and (iv), to provide an outlook and recommendations to policy makers on how the industry can be strengthened. The outlook and the recommendations are based on location-specific advantages of Germany and ownershipspecific advantages of foreign and domestic firms in the industry. The analysis is based on macro- and microeconomic data. This paper follows important scholars in the field of competitiveness by assessing competitive advantage based on trade statistics. The industry study is supported by well-known and tested frameworks, including Dunning’s (1979) eclectic paradigm, an extensive diamond analysis inspired by Porter (1990), and Vernon’s (1966; 1988) product cycle. A firm study of 27 domestic and foreign firms with production capacity in Germany is utilized to assess ownership-specific advantages of firms. Key findings are as follows: first, trade statistics reveal that the industry is largely competitive taking the national account as the key measure. Second, Germany offers a variety of unique location-specific advantages that reside in almost all factors in the national diamond. Especially strong are supplier industries, knowledge resources, domestic rivalry, and domestic demand. Third, several important location-specific advantages reside in the regional level, esp. a very good local investment context, preferential labor market conditions and knowledge resources, and the presence of related industries. Firms utilize regional advantages by locating production in eastern Germany rather than former West Germany. This industry study has several major implications. First and foremost, Germany continues to be a save harbor, esp. for foreign firms investing into solar cell manufacturing and research and development. Second, Germany is a preferred location for firms trying to commercialize proprietary technology. Third, Germany lost its position as a preferred location for proven technologies, such as crystalline silicon cells – due to higher production costs, the rise of new markets, and the desire to locate closely to these new markets. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/784 Files in this item: 1
stephan_jeznita.pdf (3.972Mb) -
An empirical analysis using the case of wheatRaquet, Vinzenz; Embäck, Anton (Frederiksberg, 2011)[More information][Less information]
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/3069 Files in this item: 1
vinzenz_raquet_og_anton_embaeck.pdf (2.924Mb) -
Vårbo, Kai Yung; Lindseth, Guttorm (Frederiksberg, 2011)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: During the recent decade, Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA (NAS) has managed to become a highly successful company, and is today the third largest European low-cost carrier and the second largest airline in Scandinavia. However, we believe that prior success is no guarantee for future success, as NAS is part of a highly dynamic industry characterized by low profit margins, fierce competition, unpredictable events, and emerging challenges which continuously keep changing the competitive environment. The main purpose of this master thesis is to conduct a thorough strategic analysis and evaluation of NAS, aimed at providing a number of strategic options which might help the company secure its position as a leading European low-cost carrier in the future. This paper is highly pragmatic in nature and based on an inductive case study research approach, which is largely reflected by the broad range of sources utilized, the generic theories and frameworks applied as well as in the distinct set of scenarios developed. The thesis primarily consists of three main parts, Company overview, Strategic analysis and Scenario planning. The first part, Company overview, intends to give the reader a descriptive overview of NAS‟ history, business strategy, competitors, and financial performance. The second part, Strategic analysis, involves an extensive examination of NAS at a macro-environmental, micro-economical and company level. Finally the last part, Scenario planning, utilizes consolidated information and key findings from the two preceding parts in order to construct four distinct, yet plausible future scenarios of the Scandinavian airline industry. In this way, NAS is better prepared to handle unforeseen events, thus ready to undertake selected strategic actions if these plausible scenarios should occur. As a result, the main findings in the paper are highly scenario specific. In relation to the first scenario, Enemy at the gates, NAS should pursue the following key strategic options; increase its brand focus, enter a strategic alliance, and adapt its planned long-haul operations. In regards to the second scenario, Survival of the fittest, NAS should develop a pure LCC business model, exploit the high price sensitivity and improve its liquidity. Further, in the third scenario, Network heaven, NAS could either optimize its current LCC business model, or pursue a hybrid business model with several ticket classes. In addition, the company should aim to strengthen its leisure travelers‟ loyalty. Finally, in the last scenario, High-speed train utopia, NAS should pursue long-haul low-cost operations, improve its travel convenience, and adapt its route network accordingly. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/3110 Files in this item: 1
kai_yung_vaarbo_og_guttorm_lindseth.pdf (3.599Mb) -
Hranai, Michael (Frederiksberg, 2016)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to examine Apple Inc.’s business environment, determine the intrinsic value of one Apple share as at 31.10.2014 and subsequently conclude as to whether the current market price is under- or over-valued. To obtain the share price estimate, findings from the strategic and financial analysis are used as a basis for financial forecast and subsequent valuation. Apple Inc. (Apple) is an American multi-national corporation established in 1976 that designs and sells consumer electronic devices as well as related software, services and user content. Apple is the world’s second largest smartphone maker and the leading tablet vendor. Despite the staggering growth the company has experienced over the past decade, its growth has decelerated markedly over the last two years. What is more, the company’s growth is highly dependent on just two product categories – smartphones and tablets. The iPhone and the iPad account for over 70% of the company’s total revenues. Strategic analysis revealed that the company faces both challenges and opportunities in relation to the development of its external business environment. Decelerating growth in the company’s core product markets combined with a shift in demand to price-sensitive emerging markets as well as the emergence of Chinese producers of low-cost devices, all represent a significant threat to Apple’s future financial results. On the other hand, wearable electronic devices and mobile payments offer a robust medium-term growth opportunity. Compared to other companies in the industry Apple stands out with its ability to seamlessly integrate hardware, software, services and content into one closed ecosystem. The ecosystem locks-in customers and provides the company with a formidable competitive advantage. Apple’s decelerating growth has translated into a decrease in profitability. Financial analysis showed that both ROE and ROIC have declined considerably over the past two years. To better control for the uncertainty related to the forecasting of Apple’s future free cash flows a scenario approach to valuation was employed, with two potential scenarios of the company’s future growth. Under the base case scenario, the company’s growth is expected to gradually decelerate as its core product markets approach maturity. The growth case scenario assumes that Apple will introduce an entirely new product category that will reinvigorate the company’s growth. The acknowledged enterprise DCF model was applied to determine the intrinsic value of Apple under each scenario. Apple’s WACC was estimated at 6.93% and used as a discount factor. Finally, based on the probabilities assigned to each scenario, the intrinsic value of one Apple share as at 31.10.2014 was estimated at $153.24, concluding that the current market price is undervalued by $46.57. A sensitivity analysis showed that the estimated value is highly sensitive to changes in WACC and the terminal growth rate. Therefore, when valuing companies both WACC and terminal growth should be monitored closely. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/6300 Files in this item: 1
michael_hranai.pdf (1.680Mb) -
Serra, Valeria (Frederiksberg, 2012)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The purpose of this thesis is evaluating the sources of the extraordinary success of the Italian company Geox S.p.A. in order to assess whether its triumph is sustainable or not in the future. Geox S.p.A. is an Italian company based in Montebelluna (Treviso, Italy). It produces high quality and innovative shoes and apparels, and it is considered one of the most successful Italian firms. The company was born thanks to an innovative idea of its founder, Mr. Mario Moretti Polegato, and its fast growth has been due not only to the knowledge of the district, but also to its strong management and its strategies. All these factors have contributed to Geox’s fast growth in a market that was already mature. Notwithstanding Geox’s leadership position in Italy, the company is not immune from the negative effects of the economic and financial crisis and of globalization. The main challenges that the company is facing are mainly constituted by increasing and labour and raw material costs. The crisis, which has been particularly strong in Italy, has made people poorer. Thus, consumers have became more price sensitive, and some of them have chosen to shift from high quality to cheaper goods usually made in developing countries. With the aim of assessing the sustainability of Geox’s success and of recommending strategies to increase profit, it has been developed a business strategy analysis based on applied theoretical frameworks. The analysis is divided in two main subgroups: internal analysis and external analysis. The main finding of the external analysis is that the competition within the industry is strong, and this is coherent with the maturity of the market. Moreover, it allowed us to find the key success factors required to succeed within the industry. The internal analysis suggests that Geox has still considerable sources of sustainable competitive advantage, which are coherent with the key success factors of the industry. In conclusion, the strategies that Geox is following are coherent with the suggestions that have been found in the last part of the thesis, and they are mainly based on addressing new markets, especially in the developing world. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/3861 Files in this item: 1
valeria_serra.pdf (1.160Mb) -
Sjøthun, Camilla (Frederiksberg, 2014)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to find the fundamental value of the offshore drilling company Seadrill Limited. A strategic and a financial analysis were conducted to find the fair value of the company. The findings from the strategic analysis indicate that the offshore drilling industry has a positive market outlook. The oil and gas prices have increased steadily since the economic downturn in 2008 and this has led to higher budgets for exploration of oil. New, big fields finding over the last years have pushed a further boost into the industry. Deepwater drilling will be the future because onshore and shallow based fields are starting to decline in production. Seadrill has specialized in deepwater drilling and has heavily invested in a new and modern fleet to meet the demand. The financial analysis shows that Seadrill has grown tremendously since its founding in 2005. Heavy investments in newbuildings and acquisitions have left the company with a very high debt. Seadrill is profitable, but pay out the highest dividend in the industry and borrow money to grow. The high risk of this business model must be taken into consideration in the valuation. The valuation was conducted using DCF-model and supported by a multiple valuation. The opportunity cost of capital (WACC) was found to be 8%, which is used to discount the future cash flow. The value of the share was found to be USD 45,3. The closing price at cut-off date was USD 40,08, giving a potential upside of 13%. The value is highly sensitive to changes in the WACC, growth in the terminal period and changes in day rates, drilling units and utilization rates. The value is therefore tested for changes in these parameters through a sensitivity analysis. Taken the high risk of the industry and Seadrill’s debt structure, the thesis concludes that the strong market outlook outweighs the risk and it is recommended to buy Seadrill’s share as it is undervalued. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10417/4705 Files in this item: 1
camilla_sjoethun.pdf (1.300Mb)